Topics and links for the broadcast of 23-08-2020 11:00 am (CEST)
Sunspotcycle 25 upcoming
NASA Sun Data Helps New Model Predict Big Solar Flares
Using data from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, or SDO, scientists have developed a new model that successfully predicted seven of the Sun’s biggest flares from the last solar cycle, out of a set of nine. With more development, the model could be used to one day inform forecasts of these intense bursts of solar radiation.
As it progresses through its natural 11-year cycle, the Sun transitions from periods of high to low activity, and back to high again. The scientists focused on X-class flares, the most powerful kind of these solar fireworks. Compared to smaller flares, big flares like these are relatively infrequent; in the last solar cycle, there were around 50. But they can have big impacts, from disrupting radio communications and power grid operations, to – at their most severe – endangering astronauts in the path of harsh solar radiation. Scientists who work on modeling flares hope that one day their efforts can help mitigate these effects.
Led by Kanya Kusano, the director of the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research at Japan’s Nagoya University, a team of scientists built their model on a kind of magnetic map: SDO’s observations of magnetic fields on the Sun’s surface. Their results were published in Science on July 30, 2020. Read more.
RSGB 2020 Convention - Online
Reported by pc5d. In response to the UK’s continuing social distancing regulations, the RSGB Convention Committee has changed the arrangements for this year’s event and is holding an online Convention on Saturday, 10 October 2020. The programme will be split into two streams and whether you’re a new licensee or have been enjoying amateur radio for many years there will be a range of topics from expert speakers that you can enjoy free throughout the day. You can watch this on the RSGB youtube channel. For more information and schedule Read more.
Reported by pc5d. Last week, the solar flux index dropped from 74 to 71 and the Earth's magnetic field was somewhat disturbed by previous coronal holes on the sun. NOAA expects a Kp index of three or two, but propagation disruption will be limited. The Solar Flux Index remains 71 to 72. The current Maximum Usable Frequency over a 3,000 km path is in the 14-18MHz range during the day, and 10-14MHz at night.
The Sporadic-E season continues, especially for the digital modes, and could also give openings at 6m in Europe next week. The propquest.co.uk website now has a map with Sporadic-E probability index, EPI. This combines many of the contributing factors into one experimental index on a map showing where the probability of Sporadic-E is greatest.